2026-04-05 · Group Positions
Watchlist
Jon · Rob · Richard — Thorp's opinion, conviction, and what would invalidate.
NVDA$876.30+2.10%
TSLA$238.45-1.70%
HOOD$27.44+3.20%
MSTR$1589.00-2.40%
AMZN$195.82+0.60%
AMD$163.55+1.30%
PLTR$24.88+0.80%
SOFI$9.12-0.40%
Jon4 positions
NVDA
$876.30+2.10%
High Conv
Thorp's Take
Dominant AI infra play. Hold through volatility.
Invalidation
Data center capex cutbacks, AMD GPU gap closes significantly.
TSLA
$238.45-1.70%
Medium Conv
Thorp's Take
Optionality on FSD + energy. Musk distraction is real.
Invalidation
FSD delays past 2026, China share loss accelerates.
HOOD
$27.44+3.20%
Medium Conv
Thorp's Take
Options flow business is growing fast. Under-owned.
Invalidation
Rate normalization kills crypto/options retail volume.
MSTR
$1589.00-2.40%
Low Conv
Thorp's Take
Pure BTC proxy. High beta, high drama.
Invalidation
BTC below 50K or debt-to-BTC ratio becomes untenable.
Rob3 positions
AMZN
$195.82+0.60%
High Conv
Thorp's Take
AWS re-acceleration + ad business. Best-in-class execution.
Invalidation
AWS growth decelerates below 15%, margin pressure returns.
AMD
$163.55+1.30%
Medium Conv
Thorp's Take
EPYC server gains + MI300 ramp. NVDA dependency risk.
Invalidation
MI300 demand disappoints, data center stalls.
PLTR
$24.88+0.80%
Medium Conv
Thorp's Take
Gov't AI contracts + AIP commercial traction.
Invalidation
Federal budget cuts, AIP pipeline stalls.
Richard2 positions
SOFI
$9.12-0.40%
Low Conv
Thorp's Take
Fintech with banking charter. Rate-sensitive.
Invalidation
Loan losses spike, student loan policy reversal.
NVDA
$876.30+2.10%
High Conv
Thorp's Take
Also in NVDA — aligned with Jon.
Invalidation
Same as Jon's.